THRIVE ISSUE 6 DECEMBER 2025 11 The New World Order & Implications For Tourism Global Tourism Is Starting To Shape Up We have morphed into a new world order that is multipolar instead of bi-polar involving only China and the USA as the two major economies. We have the likes of Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, South Africa all becoming increasingly important of the global geopolitical stage. These are countries that are not massive in terms of their contribution to overall global GDP, but they have a greater level of influence when it comes to the global issues, and this is going to shape the new world order. We are starting to also see geo-economic fragmentation. This means we are beginning to see new political alliances being redrawn in the global economy – new trade alliances forming in the political economy as well. Against that backdrop there are some trends that may be troubling for the global tourism outlook: • The rise in geopolitical risk • Economic uncertainty • Populism and its impact on policy, social stability, and international perceptions • Artificial Intelligence, the rise of cyber security and the rise of disinformation that can have an impact on certain destinations. • The risk of climate change So how is global tourism shaping up? Well, we know that the picture looks vastly different from the low in 2020. Despite the above-mentioned geopolitical risks and uncertainties in the global economy, we have seen good tourism recovery levels across the globe. In fact, in 2024 we saw international tourist arrivals reach a level that was higher than in 2019. The picture of tourism recovery looks different depending on the region. In Asia for example, about 1 in 10 people are employed in the tourism sector. This is similar in other regions such North America – also making quite a sizable contribution to GDP. When it comes to Africa, the contribution of travel and tourism to GDP in the continent is one of the lowest. Its contribution to overall jobs created is also one of the lowest. According to the World Economic Forum’s Trade and Economics Index, Africa lags on indicators such as: ICT readiness, health and hygiene, and infrastructure. Infrastructure is crucial because we have a massive market on our doorstep without much of a link between countries. This is quite unfortunate because when you look at the socio-economic benefits that come from trade and tourism, one can see that Africa could benefit the most. As mentioned, this could be seen as a challenge or an opportunity to raise prosperity in sub-Saharan Africa because this is quite a key lever to pull to generate better economics outcomes. 2025 TBCSA Leadership Conference Watch Sanisha Packirisamy’s full presentation.
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